WTM’S PIRATE PLAYER PROFILES

2002
A-:  2-2-0, 4.54 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 37.2 IP, 3.3 BB/9, 7.4 K/9 

Had a decent debut in short season ball.

2003
AA:  6-6-0, 3.65 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 86.1 IP, 3.1 BB/9, 7.6 K/9
AAA:  1-0-0, 2.84 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 19 IP, 0.9 BB/9, 10.9 K/9
MLB:  3-1-0, 3.66 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 39.1 IP, 4.1 BB/9, 6.4 K/9 

The Giants jumped Correia up to AA, where he posted solid numbers.  Late in the season he moved up to AAA for three starts and fanned 23 while allowing just 16 hits and two walks in 19 innings.  The Giants were impressed enough to bring him to the majors and he pitched mostly in their rotation starting in mid-August.  His ERA was good, but his other numbers weren’t.

2004
AAA:  3-7-0, 4.53 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 105.1 IP, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9
MLB:  0-1-0, 8.05 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 19 IP, 4.7 BB/9, 6.6 K/9 

Correia spent a little time in the majors, mostly pitching in relief, and got hammered.  Otherwise he was in AAA, both starting and relieving, and didn’t pitch very well.

2005
A+:  0-1-0, 2.57 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 7 IP, 6.4 BB/9, 9.0 K/9
AAA:  3-2-7, 6.07 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 46 IP, 4.5 BB/9, 6.8 K/9
MLB:  2-5-0, 4.63 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 58.1 IP, 4.8 BB/9, 6.8 K/9 

Correia pitched the first half of the year in AAA, relieving in 28 of 31 appearances and mostly struggling.  Oddly, the Giants brought him up at the beginning of July and he pitched mostly out of their rotation the rest of the year.  He had trouble with gopher balls, allowing a little more than one every five innings.  Over 17% of the flyballs he allowed left the park, which is a very high percentage.

2006
MLB:  2-0-0, 3.49 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 69.2 IP, 2.8 BB/9, 7.4 K/9 

The Giants moved Correia to the bullpen and he pitched a lot better.  He cut the walks and HRs down dramatically, and missed more bats.  His ratio of strikeouts to walks went from roughly 1.4 the previous two years to almost 2.6.

2007
MLB:  4-7-0, 3.45 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 101.2 IP, 3.5 BB/9, 7.1 K/9

Correia stayed in the bullpen most of the year, then moved back to the rotation in late August and actually pitched better as a starter, with 2.54 ERA, as opposed to 4.20 in relief.  He had much better peripherals as starter as well.  Except for an increase in his walk rate, his peripherals overall were nearly identical to 2006.

2008
A+:  0-0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 3.1 IP, 2.7 BB/9, 2.7 K/9
AAA:  1-0-0, 1.50 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 12 IP, 0.0 BB/9, 11.2 K/9
MLB:  3-8-0, 6.05 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 110 IP, 3.8 BB/9, 5.4 K/9 

Opened the season as a starter, but after four decent starts suffered an oblique strain in his fifth.  He missed seven weeks and wasn’t nearly as effective after returning; his ERA after his return was 6.54.  He also suffered drop in velocity of over one mph on average and had an increased HR rate, and weaker walk and K rates.  The Giants waived him after the season.  He became a free agent and signed with the Padres.

2009
12-11-0, 3.91 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 198 IP, 2.9 BB/9, 6.5 K/9 

Had easily his best year as a starter, helped a little by the extreme pitcher’s park in Petco.  His home ERA was 3.68 and his opponents’ OPS was .664.  On the road, his ERA was 4.18 and his opponents’ OPS was .749.  His control improved and he had a decent K rate.

2010
MLB:  10-10-0, 5.40 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 145 IP, 4.0 BB/9, 7.1 K/9 

Correia started the season OK, with a 3.97 ERA through his first six starts.  He then missed two weeks after his brother died in a hiking accident and struggled the rest of season after his return.  All of his peripherals got worse except his K rate.  He had trouble with HRs again, as the percentage of flyballs he allowed that cleared the fence roughly doubled from 2009.  Despite the HR-hostile environs of Petco, he allowed nearly a HR every six innings there.  His home and road ERAs were nearly identical.

2011
MLB:  12-11-0, 4.79 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 154 IP, 2.3 BB/9, 4.5 K/9 

Correia got off to a strong start for the Pirates, going 4-2, 2.90 in April.  His ERA got worse every month, though, going from 2.90 – 4.15 – 4.56 – 6.08 – 8.41, until he went on the disabled list for good in late August with a strained left oblique.  He had a good W/L record only because the Pirates averaged about 1.2 runs more when he started than when he didn’t.  To put this another way, the Pirates finished 14th in the NL in average runs per game.  If only Correia’s starts counted, they’d have finished first.  In some ways, Correia improved over 2010.  His WHIP and walk rate dropped, but his K rate dropped dramatically.  The percentage of swings and misses he’s gotten has dropped throughout his career, but it took a big drop in 2011, from 7.6% in 2010 (his previous career low) to 5.7%.  Gopher balls were a big problem, especially late in the season.  In his last 14 starts, he allowed at least two in five, including three in one and four in another.  On the season he allowed 24 in just 154 innings.  He also had a puzzling home/road split, going 2-8, 7.71 at PNC Park and 10-3, 2.64 on the road, although this was almost certainly a fluke.

The Pirates’ decision to sign Correia to a two-year contract was unfortunate.  The ostensible reason for a pitcher like him is to “stabilize” a rotation.  It’s true that he’s unlikely to be as awful as some of the starters they’ve had over the years (John Van Benschoten springs to mind), but he also offers almost no upside.  He doesn’t offer all that much stability, either.  He’s not an “innings eater” (someday I’ll see an explanation of the advantage of having a pitcher throw a lot of innings that aren’t good innings, but I haven’t yet).  He’s 31 now and has pitched more than 154 innings only once, and more than 110 only three times.  He also can rarely be left in games past the fifth inning, if even that long.  The sudden and dramatic drop in his ability to get swings and misses could be a sign that his stuff has worsened.  He’s also had stretches throughout his career where he’s struggled with his control and with gopher balls, or both.  There’s nothing to suggest he could be a long-term solution to the Pirates’ need for truly good starters; instead, he’s just a guy to mark time with.  He’s the classic “safe” choice that struggling teams make, thinking that he’s low-upside and low-risk, when in fact he’s low-upside and high-risk.

The two-year deal became all the more regrettable when the Pirates were able to acquire A.J. Burnett.  Correia will remain in the rotation at the start of the 2012 season, due to Burnett and Charlie Morton both being on the disabled list, but both should be back by early May.  At that point, the team will have to make a decision about Correia.  He could be moved to relief, but it would be at the cost of somebody with more upside.  The Pirates reportedly were shopping Correia late in spring training, but there were better pitchers on the market.

• $2 M signing bonus
• Performance bonuses in 2012 based on innings pitched: $100,000 each for 170, 180, 190, 200, 210 innings pitched
• Performance bonuses in 2012 based on games started: $125,000 each for 26, 28, 30, 32 starts
• Total possible 2012 performance bonuses: $1,000,000

2010: $3,600,000 (avoided arbitration)
2009: $750,000 (minor league contract)
2008: $1,075,000 (avoided arbitration)
2007: $400,000
2006: $327,000
2005: $318,500
2004: $304,000